DELAWARE RIVER BASIN
FLOOD ANALYSIS MODEL PROJECT
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DRBC Releases Results of Flood Analysis Model
This press release was issued December 15, 2009
Delaware River Basin: Analysis of Potential Flood Mitigation with Existing Reservoirs (3.54 MB*)
This presentation was given at the December 15, 2009 meeting of the
Delaware River Basin Interstate Flood Mitigation Task Force
Delaware River Basin Flood Analysis Model: Overview of Results and Next Steps (1.24 MB*)
This summary was distributed at the December 15, 2009 meeting of the
Delaware River Basin Interstate Flood Mitigation Task Force
Map of the Delaware River Basin (1.23 MB*)
This map includes existing reservoirs and AHPS forecast points referenced in model
Interstate Flood Mitigation Task Force Recommendation
The task force recommended that a flood analysis model be developed to:
- assess the downstream effects of reservoir voids of different magnitudes.
- evaluate alternative reservoir operating plans, including spill and discharge mitigation plans.
- seek release programs that would reduce the likelihood and volume of spills from reservoirs during storm events in order to mitigate flooding, without adversely affecting the functions for which the reservoirs were built.
Authorization & Funding
- Resolution No. 2006-20 of the Delaware River Basin Commission authorized the Commission's executive director to develop a flood analysis model for the basin
- The four basin states committed a combined total of $500,000
- The U.S. Geological Survey-Pennsylvania Water Science Center led the development of an interagency proposal, including additional funds and in-kind services from USGS, the National Weather Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers totaling $285,000
- Agreements with DRBC were finalized in June 2007 and work began in August 2007
- Total Project Cost = $785,000
Project Team
- U.S. Geological Survey, Pennsylvania & New Jersey Water Science Centers and National Research Program (USGS)
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) and Philadelphia District (Corps)
- National Weather Service, Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center (NWS)
- Delaware River Basin Commission, Water Resources Management Branch, Operations Section (DRBC)
Intended Model Capabilities & Uses
- For the September 2004, April 2005, and June 2006 storm events, the model will be capable of evaluating effects of initial reservoir voids on downstream flood crests.
- It will provide a tool to inform decision makers on the potential development of discharge mitigation plans for 15 basin reservoirs (13 upstream of Trenton, N.J).
- It will enhance understanding of the impacts or benefits of reservoirs on basin hydrology.
- Under different work efforts, the model and data sets will be capable of modification and improvement as new information and technology become available.
Model Outputs
- Flood hydrographs at existing NWS flood forecast points
- Tables of river stages at existing NWS flood forecast points
- Reservoir stage, storage and discharge hydrographs
The Model WILL NOT
- be run in a real-time mode to direct operational changes during flood events. The model is intended to be used as a planning tool to inform decision makers.
- be used for real-time flood forecasting. Real-time flood forecasting is already provided by the NWS.
- determine policy regarding the use of reservoir storage for flood mitigation. Model results will be among the considerations that inform reservoir management for multiple objectives and policy decisions.
Model Components
- PRMS rainfall/runoff model developed by the USGS
- HEC-ResSim reservoir operations model developed by the HEC
- Lag and K flow routing method, based on that used in the existing NWS flood forecasting model
- GIS and hydrologic data management
Work Tasks
- Task 1 -- Database development and maintenance
- Task 2 -- Rainfall/runoff model development (PRMS)
- Task 3 -- Reservoir simulation and flow routing (HEC-ResSim)
- Task 4 -- Integration of the model components into the Modular Modeling System (MMS)
- Task 5 -- Graphical User Interface (GUI) development
Products
- Documentation of model development, assumptions, database, and calibration and verification in USGS and HEC reports.
- Documentation of model capabilities and functionality. The user's guides for the software are available on-line at the links below.
- USGS open-file report on details of rainfall/runoff modeling and the model database.
- HEC report on reservoir modeling and flow routing.
- Journal article or technical conference presentation.
- Delivery in a package that allows for modification, additional simulation, expansion, and distribution by DRBC. USGS products are generally public domain. HEC-ResSim software is free and models developed using these tools can be used by experienced hydrologic modelers.
- Public presentation document (e.g., PowerPoint) and participation in presentations upon request.
Model Database and Calibration
- GIS data layers developed for the project
- Ten most recent years of hydrologic data to allow for a range of antecedent conditions
- Three recent main stem flood events for calibration: September 2004, April 2005, June 2006
Project Milestones
- Milestone 1 -- Presentation of the integrated model, including rainfall and snow melt runoff, reservoir simulation, and flow routing for the selected "pilot" basin. After successful completion of this milestone the model will be expanded to the entire study area. (November 2007)
- Milestone 2 -- Model completed. Discussion will focus on calibration and operation of the model and details associated with the products. (Fall 2009)
- Milestone 3 -- Presentation of model results and product deliverable. (Fall 2009)
On-Line References for Model Components (Including User's Guides)
* You will need the free Adobe reader to view this document.
View January 15, 2009 News Release: DRBC Announces Delay in Delivery of Flood Analysis Model
View May 5, 2009 News Release: DRBC Announces Flood Analysis Model Status Update
Updated February 19, 2010
Voice
(609) 883-9500 
clarke.rupert@drbc.state.nj.us